Skip to content
World edition
Analyst Newspaper
World · Multi-perspective analysis

Ethiopia and Tigray forces clash again, reviving fears of return to war

Ethiopia's government and Tigrayan forces blame each other for a new round of fighting that has revived fears of a return to the devastating 2020-2022 civil war, with accounts differing on who started it.

Analysis deskEditor Andersson Iyke
15 outlets, 6 regions

What happened

Ethiopia's federal government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) have accused each other of launching offensives, with fighting reported in Tigray and, according to France 24 and El País, the neighboring regions of Afar and Amhara.1315

Tigrayan forces have seized an airport in Mekelle and reportedly taken control of other federally administered airports in Tigray.1131415

The TPLF has announced an alliance with six other armed groups, which the groups said was aimed at removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government, according to CGTN.2

Ethiopian Airlines has suspended flights to three Tigray cities as tensions have escalated.2

The African Union and European Union have called for immediate de-escalation, and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has urged restraint to avoid a broader conflict.48

What's agreed

Reported consistently by outlets in more than one region.

  • Fighting has broken out in and around Ethiopia's Tigray region involving the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and federal government forces, raising fears of a return to full-scale war.135691214
  • Tigrayan forces seized control of an airport in Mekelle, and reports describe additional airports in Tigray coming under Tigrayan control.1131415
  • The TPLF has formed an alliance with several other armed groups.2812
  • The current fighting follows a 2020-2022 civil war between the TPLF and federal forces that ended with a peace deal, now described as fragile or shattered.351112

Where accounts differ

Each account is attributed to who makes it. We do not judge between them.

Who initiated the current fighting

Ethiopian government, via Getachew Reda and Premium Times' reporting

The government says the TPLF launched offensives and took control of federally administered airports in Tigray, describing it as an 'all-out offensive' by the rebels.17

Tigray rebels, via AFP (reported by France 24)

Tigray rebels told AFP they were in a state of 'full-blown war' with the federal government, responding to what they characterized as government aggression.3

Tigray rebels, via Washington Post reporting

Tigray rebels said they were responding to a 'full-scale offensive' by the government, which the government denied, saying the rebels started the fighting.10

Characterization of the conflict's scale

Tigrayan leaders, via Reuters/Egypt Independent

Tigrayan leaders say a new war with the federal government has begun.11

Ethiopian President Taye Atske Selassie

The president warned of 'forces of destruction' in response to what he called a rebel offensive, without confirming the government itself started a new war.9

How it's framed

What each perspective puts first, based on headlines and summaries.

PerspectiveHow it readsWhat it puts first
African private and independent pressAfricaOutlets emphasize the mutual accusations between the government and Tigray, foregrounding official statements from Ethiopian officials and framing the government's disputed characterization of TPLF actions as an offensive.1711mutual accusations, government statements, offensive framing
European outlets (public broadcasters and private press)EuropeEuropean coverage varies: Le Monde and El País use stronger language describing 'total war' or the return of 'civil war,' while France 24 and Deutsche Welle are more cautious, quoting rebels' 'full-blown war' claim and describing the 2022 peace deal as being 'tested' rather than declaring war outright.381215peace deal fragility, varying intensity of war framing, international response
US outletsNorth AmericaUS outlets, including public broadcasting and major newspapers, emphasize growing fears of renewed war and present competing claims from both the government and rebels without adopting either side's framing.51014fear of renewed war, balanced attribution of blame, specific military developments like airport seizures
Middle East and Turkey-based outletsMiddle East & TurkeyCoverage from this region includes both state-controlled (Al Jazeera, Anadolu) and private (Arab News) outlets, with emphasis on international diplomatic responses (UN) and government warnings about rebel actions, alongside straightforward reporting of rebel airport seizures.4913UN response, government warnings, rebel military gains
Chinese state mediaEast AsiaState-controlled CGTN frames the story primarily around a concrete consequence, the suspension of Ethiopian Airlines flights, while noting the rebel alliance's stated goal of removing the prime minister.2practical impact on travel, alliance's political goal
Southeast Asian private pressSoutheast AsiaThe Straits Times focuses on the human and civilian dimension, describing residents stockpiling supplies in fear of war, rather than on military or political claims.6civilian fear, stockpiling behavior

What the coverage leaves out

  • None of the outlets reviewed reported independently verified casualty figures for the current fighting.
  • None of the outlets reviewed detailed the specific composition or names of all six armed groups allied with the TPLF beyond describing the alliance.
  • None of the outlets reviewed reported a direct response from Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed himself, as opposed to other Ethiopian officials.
  • None of the outlets reviewed explained in detail what triggered the breakdown of the 2022 peace deal in the weeks or months prior to the fighting.

Why it matters

The 2020-2022 Tigray war killed more than 600,000 people according to African Union estimates, and a 2022 peace deal that ended it is now described by outlets as being tested or broken.312

The African Union and European Union have called for immediate de-escalation, and the UN Secretary-General has urged parties to avoid actions that could lead to broader conflict.48

France 24 and El País reported that fighting has also spread to the neighboring regions of Afar and Amhara, not just Tigray itself.315

What to watch

  • Whether the African Union, European Union or United Nations statements lead to any negotiated de-escalation.
  • Whether fighting spreads further into the Afar and Amhara regions.
  • Whether Ethiopian Airlines extends or lifts its flight suspensions to Tigray cities.

Sources (15)

Every outlet we drew on, grouped by where it is based. Read the originals for the full reporting.

Europe

Get every side of the day's news.

Join the list for our daily briefing, launching soon.