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Oil tanker traffic through Hormuz nears pre-war levels despite ongoing attacks

Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has rebounded close to pre-war levels, but outlets diverge on what this means for prices, Iran's leverage, and whether the strait can still be called blocked.

Analysis deskEditor Andersson IykeUpdated
19 outlets, 8 regions
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What happened

Multiple outlets report that Middle East and Gulf crude oil exports, including shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, have recovered to roughly pre-war levels, with some citing figures near 98% recovery or specific barrel-per-day volumes.134611121419

The recovery has been aided by alternative routes, including pipeline exports and ship-to-ship transfers, with Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline resuming operations after being halted by a drone attack, and Iraq shipping crude beyond Hormuz for the first time in decades.481314151618

Despite the volume recovery, oil prices have remained elevated, and outlets offer different explanations, including constrained refined-fuel supplies and, according to one outlet, the possibility of a secret toll charged by Iran.5111217

Attacks on tankers and related infrastructure are reported to be continuing even as overall flows recover, and Iran is cited as maintaining that the strait will not reopen until its conditions are met, a claim some tanker-tracking data is said to contradict.71017

What's agreed

Reported consistently by outlets in more than one region.

  • Middle East/Gulf crude oil exports and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to approximately pre-war levels.134671112141917
  • Producers and shippers have increasingly used alternative routes, pipelines, and ship-to-ship transfers to move crude, partly bypassing Hormuz.4514
  • Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline was halted after a drone attack or strike on a pumping station, then resumed, restoring loadings from the Yanbu port.81316
  • Despite the recovery in crude flows, oil prices have remained high.25111217
  • Iraq's state oil company transported crude oil beyond the Strait of Hormuz for the first time in decades, moving 2 million barrels on a VLCC.1518
  • Attacks on tankers or related infrastructure in the Hormuz region have continued even as flows recover.7179

Where accounts differ

Each account is attributed to who makes it. We do not judge between them.

Whether the Strait of Hormuz is currently open, closed, or effectively blocked

Iranian officials, as cited by Anadolu Agency

Iran says the strategic waterway will not reopen until its conditions are met.10

Tanker-tracking firms Kpler and Windward, as cited by Anadolu Agency

Data shows oil is moving through the strait and via alternative export routes, contradicting claims of closure.10

The Times of India headline framing

Describes Hormuz as blocked even as Gulf crude shipments reach pre-war levels.19

Politico Europe

Describes the Strait of Hormuz as having been closed this year, framing it as an event highlighting trade-route fragility.9

Why oil prices remain high despite recovered crude flows

Al Jazeera English

Raises the possibility that Iran is charging a secret toll or fee to allow oil traffic through Hormuz.5

Mint and The Guardian

Attribute elevated prices to constrained refined-fuel supplies, such as diesel, rather than crude volumes.1214

The Japan Times

Frames the puzzle as oil staying near $100 despite Trump appearing to be winning the battle over Hormuz, without specifying a cause.2

CNBC

Links continued high pump prices to broader economic pressure without attributing a specific cause tied to Iran.11

Reported figures for crude flow volumes

TASS, citing bank data

Crude shipments have rebounded to 17.5 million barrels per day.3

Mint

Crude shipments through Hormuz show a seven-day average of 13.5 million barrels per day.12

The Hindu

Exports averaged 18 million bpd between March 2025 and February of the prior year, before the war began.7

How it's framed

What each perspective puts first, based on headlines and summaries.

PerspectiveHow it readsWhat it puts first
Western financial and general-interest outletsNorth AmericaEmphasize the recovery of crude flows alongside continued economic pressure from high prices, framing the story around cost to consumers and global economy.611pre-war levels reached, high pump prices, economic pressure, Iran's wartime leverage
European outletsEuropeCombine reporting on the recovery with attention to remaining constraints (refined products) and broader geopolitical fragility of energy routes.491417alternative routes, refined product constraints, trade route fragility, US military escorts
Middle East-based outletsMiddle East & TurkeyQatari state broadcaster raises skepticism about hidden Iranian tolls, Turkish state agency frames Iranian claims of closure against contrary tanker data, and Gulf-based private press focuses on Iraq's new export workaround.5101518secret fee allegation, Iran's closure claims disputed by data, Iraq's first-in-decades shipping route
South Asian outletsSouth AsiaPresent the recovery with mixed tone, noting both the return to or above pre-war volumes and continuing tanker attacks, plus a contrasting headline calling the strait blocked.71219exports exceed pre-war levels, tanker attacks increase, mixed signals on blockage
Russian state mediaRussia & EurasiaReports the headline recovery figure with specific volume data in a neutral, factual tone without additional commentary on causes or disputes.398% recovery, specific bpd figures
Southeast Asian outletsSoutheast AsiaFocus narrowly on the Saudi pipeline and Yanbu port resumption as a discrete infrastructure story, with one outlet's coverage noted as syndicated.813pipeline restart, Yanbu loadings resume
African private pressAfricaReports the headline recovery statistic in brief, neutral terms without extended analysis of causes or disputes.198% of pre-war levels, security risks persist
East Asian outletEast AsiaFrames the story as a puzzle, questioning why oil prices remain elevated despite what is portrayed as a battle being won over Hormuz.2battle framing, price puzzle, Trump's role

What the coverage leaves out

  • None of the outlets reviewed specify what Iran's stated conditions for reopening the strait actually are.
  • None of the outlets reviewed provide independent verification or denial from Iranian authorities regarding the alleged secret toll.
  • None of the outlets reviewed give a detailed, consistent timeline of when the war affecting oil shipments began or ended.
  • None of the outlets reviewed report on the perspective of shipping insurers or crews directly affected by continued tanker attacks.

Why it matters

The Strait of Hormuz is a key corridor for global oil supply, and disruptions there have been described as highlighting the fragility of global trade routes.9

Analysts have linked continued high oil prices partly to constrained refined-fuel supplies even as crude volumes recover.1214

What to watch

  • Whether oil prices decline further as refined-product supplies, such as diesel, catch up with crude volume recovery.
  • Whether Iran's stated conditions for the strait and reports of tanker attacks continue to diverge from tanker-tracking data.
  • Whether Iraq's new export route beyond Hormuz becomes a regular practice rather than a one-off shipment.

Sources (19)

Every outlet we drew on, grouped by where it is based. Read the originals for the full reporting.

Europe

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