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Study projects up to 451,000 heat deaths from this year's strong El Niño

A University of Chicago study projecting up to 451,000 heat deaths from this year's strong El Niño drew wide coverage, with outlets differing in how they localized the toll and framed its causes and consequences.

Analysis deskEditor Andersson IykeUpdated
18 outlets, 9 regions
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What happened

A study by the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab projects that extreme heat from this year's strong El Niño could cause up to 451,000 additional deaths worldwide in the six months to February 2027.4

The El Niño phenomenon, declared in June, is on course to be the strongest on record according to Channels Television, with developing nations and Global South countries expected to be hit hardest according to multiple outlets.13615

Country-specific projections include 13,300 additional deaths in Brazil and 15,800 in India.514

France 24 also reports that Nigeria, Indonesia and Sudan are among the countries likely to be worst affected.4

Some governments, including Lesotho and Indonesia, are reported to be taking preparedness measures such as securing drought-resistant seeds and strengthening public health monitoring.29

What's agreed

Reported consistently by outlets in more than one region.

  • A study by the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab projects that heat from this year's strong El Niño could cause up to 451,000 additional deaths worldwide from June to February, with some outlets rounding the figure to approximately 450,000.1346710131517
  • Developing nations and Global South countries are expected to be hit hardest by the heat-related death toll.34615
  • This year's El Niño is described as a 'super El Niño' potentially on course to be among the strongest on record.13812
  • Country-level reports estimate thousands of additional heat deaths, including 13,300 in Brazil and 15,800 in India.514

How it's framed

What each perspective puts first, based on headlines and summaries.

PerspectiveHow it readsWhat it puts first
European public broadcasterEuropeEmphasizes the scale and unprecedented nature of the event with dramatic scientific language, highlighting global excess death figures and specific worst-affected countries.4'Godzilla-level' climate event, 451,000 excess deaths, countries worst affected named
Russian state media (RT) and Qatari state-controlled outlet (Al Jazeera)Russia & EurasiaBoth outlets, which are state-controlled, report the approximately 450,000 global mortality toll and note that developing nations will be hardest hit.36super El Nino, developing nations hardest hit, global mortality toll
South Asian privately owned pressSouth AsiaLocalize the story to national impacts, citing country-specific death estimates and links to food security, monsoon disruption and unpreparedness for extreme weather.812141618national death tolls, food insecurity, hottest year projections, public health unpreparedness
Latin American public broadcasterLatin AmericaFocuses on Brazil-specific mortality projections and regional impacts within Latin America, alongside related economic relief measures.5Brazil death toll, North and Northeast regions, economic assistance
African and East Asian state-controlled outletsAfricaEmphasize national government preparedness and adaptation measures rather than the global mortality projection itself.29drought preparedness, government response, agricultural adaptation
Southeast Asian outletsSoutheast AsiaReport the global death toll figure directly, with some outlets adopting the study's 'postcard from our future' framing, while Indonesian state media focuses on national health preparedness.1315179451,000 global deaths, postcard from our future, national health preparedness

What the coverage leaves out

  • None of the outlets reviewed detail the full methodology used by the Climate Impact Lab to calculate the mortality projections.
  • None of the outlets reviewed report on responses from international bodies such as the WHO regarding the projected death toll.
  • None of the outlets reviewed provide comparative figures from past El Niño events to contextualize the scale of this projection.
  • Few outlets reviewed report specific national death toll figures beyond Brazil and India, leaving the projected impact on other named at-risk countries such as Nigeria, Indonesia and Sudan unquantified.
  • Some outlets, such as Al Jazeera, describe the timeframe as 'June to February' without specifying the year, while France 24 specifies the six months to February 2027.

Why it matters

The projections come from the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago, which frames the current El Niño as a preview of temperatures climate change could otherwise bring decades from now.14

Governments in affected regions, including Lesotho and Indonesia, are reported to be taking preparedness measures such as securing drought-resistant seeds and strengthening health monitoring.29

What to watch

  • Whether the projected death toll materializes as the El Niño event progresses through the June to February period.
  • Further country-specific impact studies, given only Brazil and India have detailed national figures reported so far.
  • Government preparedness measures in additional at-risk countries such as Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan and Pakistan.

Sources (18)

Every outlet we drew on, grouped by where it is based. Read the originals for the full reporting.

Latin America

Middle East & Turkey

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