Study projects up to 451,000 extra heat deaths from this year's El Nino
Researchers at the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab project a large global death toll from El Niño-driven heat, with outlets worldwide highlighting the global figure alongside country-specific tolls and warnings for developing nations.
What happened
A report by the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago projects that extreme heat caused by this year's 'super El Niño' could lead to as many as 451,000 excess deaths worldwide in the six months to February 2027, according to France 24.3
Multiple outlets, including Channels Television, Taipei Times, Dawn, Malay Mail and The Straits Times, reported the same 451,000 figure, while Al Jazeera reported approximately 450,000 and RNZ described the toll as almost half a million.12781156
The number of extremely hot days is expected to rise by 44%, according to France 24's report on the researchers' findings.3
Country-level projections include 13,300 deaths in Brazil, concentrated in the North and Northeast regions, according to Agência Brasil, and 15,800 additional heat deaths in India, according to The Hindu.410
Separately, Anadolu Agency reported that summer heatwaves were associated with 600 additional deaths in Switzerland, with unusually high mortality among people under 65 in the second heatwave; the outlets reviewed did not link this figure to the broader El Niño projections.9
What's agreed
Reported consistently by outlets in more than one region.
- This year's El Niño could cause an estimated 451,000 extra heat deaths worldwide, according to researchers at the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab.1237811
- Developing countries and the Global South are expected to be hit hardest by the heat-related toll.3511
- The projection covers roughly the period from June to February.3511
- The report comes from researchers at the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab.3410
Where accounts differ
Each account is attributed to who makes it. We do not judge between them.
How it's framed
What each perspective puts first, based on headlines and summaries.
| Perspective | How it reads | What it puts first |
|---|---|---|
| Global/wire framing emphasizing the headline death tollEast Asia | Coverage foregrounds the top-line 451,000 figure with minimal additional context in short reports.2 | 451,000 deaths, brief factual framing |
| European public broadcaster framing with dramatic characterizationEurope | France 24 frames the event using scientists' description of a 'Godzilla-level' climate event and details the 44% rise in extremely hot days, plus which countries will be worst affected.3 | Godzilla-level event, 44% more hot days, worst-affected countries named |
| Latin American public broadcaster framing on national impactLatin America | Agência Brasil focuses on Brazil-specific projections (13,300 deaths), regional distribution within Brazil, and Brazil's status as the worst-affected Latin American country.4 | national death toll, regional distribution in Brazil, Latin America comparison |
| Middle East-based outlets framing global equity concernsMiddle East & Turkey | Al Jazeera frames coverage around whether readers should worry and stresses Global South countries being worst affected; Anadolu Agency separately reports a distinct heatwave mortality story for Switzerland without linking it to the global El Niño figure.59 | Global South impact, should we worry framing, separate heatwave mortality data |
| Oceania public broadcaster framing on scientist warningOceania | RNZ centers its report on a climate scientist's characterization of the coming months as a 'very dangerous situation'.6 | scientist quote, dangerous situation framing |
| South Asian outlets framing national stakesSouth Asia | Dawn frames the story around Pakistan's specific risks including monsoon disruption, drought and food insecurity alongside the global death toll figure, while The Hindu focuses on India's specific projected toll and the 'postcard from our future' framing.710 | national food security, monsoon disruption, country-specific death toll, postcard from our future |
| Southeast Asian outlets using 'postcard from our future' framingSoutheast Asia | Malay Mail and CNA (state-controlled) use the phrase 'postcard from our future' in headlines or text, while Straits Times emphasizes developing countries being hit hardest.81211 | postcard from our future, developing countries hardest hit |
| African private press framing as straight newsAfrica | Channels Television runs a syndicated report presenting the 451,000 figure and El Niño's status as strongest on record without additional local context.1 | record-strength El Niño, syndicated wire framing |
What the coverage leaves out
- None of the outlets reviewed detailed the full methodology behind the Climate Impact Lab's death toll projections.
- None of the outlets reviewed reported specific death toll projections for the United States, Europe, or China.
- None of the outlets reviewed reported government or international body responses to the projected death toll.
- None of the outlets reviewed clarified how the Switzerland heatwave mortality figures reported by Anadolu Agency relate to the broader El Niño projections.
Why it matters
El Niño is characterized in coverage as an abnormal warming of Pacific Ocean waters, declared in June and expected to peak later in the year, with researchers describing it as on course to be the strongest on record, according to Channels Television and Agência Brasil.14
According to Dawn, the World Meteorological Organisation and climate scientists say a very strong El Niño increases the likelihood of significant global shifts in temperature and rainfall patterns.7
The Climate Impact Lab describes this year's El Niño as offering a preview of temperatures climate change is projected to bring in 20 years without new investment in adaptation, according to The Hindu.10
What to watch
- Whether the six-month projection period (June to February) plays out as forecast and whether excess deaths are subsequently confirmed.
- Researchers have warned the impact could extend well beyond the six-month period studied, according to France 24.
Sources (12)
Every outlet we drew on, grouped by where it is based. Read the originals for the full reporting.
Latin America
- 4Agência BrasilBRPublic broadcaster
Study predicts up to 13,300 deaths in Brazil from Super El Niño heat
Translated from Portuguese: Estudo prevê até 13,3 mil mortes no Brasil com calor do Super El Niño
Europe
- 3France 24FRPublic broadcaster
El Nino: Climate scientists warn of "Godzilla-level" climate event
Middle East & Turkey
- 5Al Jazeera EnglishQAState-controlled
Scientists warn super El Nino could cause 450,000 deaths: Should we worry?
- 9Anadolu AgencyTRState-controlled
Summer heatwaves associated with 600 additional deaths in Switzerland
Africa
- 1Channels TelevisionNGPrivate
South Asia
East Asia
- 2Taipei TimesTWPrivate
Southeast Asia
- 8Malay MailMYPrivate
‘Postcard from our future’: El Nino could cause 451,000 extra heat deaths
- 11The Straits TimesSGPrivate
- 12CNASGState-controlled
Oceania
- 6RNZNZPublic broadcaster
Climate: Report predicts El Niño death toll of almost half a million