Russia's 2027 draft budget sets record defence spending amid new taxes
Russia's 2027 draft budget shows record defence spending, but outlets differ on the exact size of the increase and what it signals about the war's trajectory and Russia's economic health.
What happened
Russia's 2027 draft budget allocates more than 17.1 trillion roubles to defence, the highest level since its 2022 invasion of Ukraine began, according to budget documents and officials cited by multiple outlets.194
Outlets report differing estimates of the size of the increase, ranging from about 27% to 40% above earlier budgeted levels, depending on the source and baseline used.1311
To fund the spending, Russia is reported to be raising taxes, increasing borrowing, and cutting social and health programs, while some regions have sharply reduced death benefits paid to families of soldiers killed in the war.57138
Russia's Finance Ministry projects the federal budget deficit will remain around 2% of GDP from 2027 to 2029, while a deputy prime minister forecasts 1.4% GDP growth in 2027 alongside elevated inflation.42
Russia's finance ministry projects the federal budget deficit at around 2% of GDP from 2027 to 2029.4
What's agreed
Reported consistently by outlets in more than one region.
- Russia's 2027 draft budget sets defence spending at a record level, above 17.1 trillion roubles (roughly $202.58 billion / 180 billion euros), the highest since the start of the war in Ukraine in 2022.194
- Russia plans to fund the increased spending through a mix of higher taxes, more borrowing and cuts to social or health programs.5713
- Russia's military spending has been rising for multiple years running, now in the fifth or sixth year of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.811
Where accounts differ
Each account is attributed to who makes it. We do not judge between them.
Size of the defence spending increase
Reuters, via Daily Maverick
Defence spending for 2027 is about 27% higher than the 13.5 trillion roubles originally budgeted.1
Bloomberg, via Ukrainska Pravda
The draft budget shows a 40% jump in military spending.3
El País
Putin is increasing military spending by a third (roughly one-third) for his sixth year of the invasion.11
What the spending increase signals about the war's duration
Bloomberg, via Ukrainska Pravda
The record spending signals Putin is preparing for a prolonged war.3
Anadolu Agency (Turkish state-controlled)
The budget reflects defence financing as a strategic priority, framed in fiscal planning terms without characterizing war duration.4
TASS (Russian state-controlled)
Coverage focuses on projected GDP growth of 1.4% in 2027 and inflation figures, without framing the budget around war duration.2
How it's framed
What each perspective puts first, based on headlines and summaries.
| Perspective | How it reads | What it puts first |
|---|---|---|
| Russian state-controlled mediaRussia & Eurasia | TASS coverage centers on macroeconomic indicators such as GDP growth and inflation, attributed to a deputy prime minister, without emphasizing defence spending increases or their social costs.2 | GDP growth, inflation figures, official statements |
| Turkish state-controlled mediaMiddle East & Turkey | Anadolu Agency frames the budget in neutral fiscal-policy terms, describing defence financing as a declared strategic priority and citing projected deficit figures from the Finance Ministry.4 | strategic priority, deficit projections, official framing |
| Western and European independent/private outletsEurope | Outlets including The Moscow Times, El País, Le Monde, Financial Times and Meduza emphasize the record scale of the spending, the trade-offs involved (tax hikes, borrowing, cuts to health and death benefits), and compare the spending levels to Soviet-era precedents.7119138 | record spending, tax increases, cuts to social/death benefits, Soviet-era comparison |
| North American outletNorth America | The New York Times links the spending rise to difficulties both Russia and Ukraine face in financing the conflict, emphasizing cuts to social programs alongside the war spending increase.5 | financing difficulty, social program cuts, debt and taxes |
| Ukrainian and Southeast Asian outletsEurope | Ukrainska Pravda, citing Bloomberg, frames the increase as evidence Putin is preparing for a prolonged war, while a Singapore outlet separately reports Ukraine's own funding gap for sustaining operations.36 | prolonged war, Ukraine funding gap, combat operations risk |
| African independent outletAfrica | Daily Maverick, drawing on Reuters reporting, presents the spending figures and percentage increase in straightforward factual terms without additional framing on war duration or social costs.1 | record defence spending, factual figures |
What the coverage leaves out
- None of the outlets reviewed reported detailed reactions from the Russian public or opposition figures to the proposed tax increases or benefit cuts.
- None of the outlets reviewed explained how the 27%, 33% (a third) and 40% increase figures cited by different outlets were calculated or reconciled against each other.
- None of the outlets reviewed reported how Ukraine's $27 billion funding gap relates directly to Russia's budget figures, beyond both being covered in the same period.
- None of the outlets reviewed detailed the specific social programs, beyond health and pension-adjacent items, affected by the described cuts.
Why it matters
The spending increase comes as Russia enters a sixth year of invading Ukraine, with outlets noting it reshapes the balance of public spending and raises questions about how long the war can be financed.115
Ukraine is separately reported to face its own funding shortfall for 2027, with its prime minister citing a $27 billion gap to sustain combat operations.6
What to watch
- Whether the proposed tax increases, including dividend and windfall taxes on gold and metals producers, are enacted as described by the Financial Times.
- Whether further Russian regions follow reported cuts to death benefits for soldiers' families, as described by Meduza.
- Whether Ukraine's reported $27 billion funding gap for 2027 combat operations is resolved, per Prime Minister Sergii Koretskyi's comments to The Straits Times.
Sources (13)
Every outlet we drew on, grouped by where it is based. Read the originals for the full reporting.
North America
- 5The New York TimesUSPrivate
Russia to Sharply Increase War Spending and Cut to Social Programs
Europe
- 3Ukrainska PravdaUAPrivate
Russia increases military spending as Putin prepares for years of war, Bloomberg reports
- 7The Moscow TimesNLIndependent
- 8MeduzaLVIndependent
- 9Le MondeFRPrivate
LIVE, war in Ukraine: Russia plans military spending maintained at record levels until 2029
Translated from French: EN DIRECT, guerre en Ukraine : la Russie prévoit des dépenses militaires maintenues à des niveaux records jusqu’en 2029
- 10Politico EuropeBEPrivate
France increases defense budget despite strained public finances
- 11El PaísESPrivate
Translated from Spanish: Rusia hipoteca su futuro económico por la guerra: defensa, seguridad y espionaje suman ya casi la mitad del gasto público
- 12RTÉ NewsIEPublic broadcaster
- 13Financial TimesGBPrivate
Russia & Eurasia
- 2TASSRUState-controlled
Middle East & Turkey
- 4Anadolu AgencyTRState-controlled
Russia sets defense financing as strategic priority in budget
Africa
- 1Daily MaverickZAIndependent
Russia raises 2027 military spending by 27%, budget documents show
Southeast Asia
- 6The Straits TimesSGPrivate